The "cone" is the most recognized hurricane graphic — and the most misread. Understanding it prevents a dangerous mistake.
What the cone actually represents
The cone shows the probable track of the center of the storm. Its width is not based on this particular storm; it is drawn from the National Hurricane Center's historical forecast error over the past five years. The center stays inside the cone only about two-thirds of the time, and the cone says nothing about the storm's size or strength.
The mistake that gets people hurt
If your town is just outside the edge of the cone, it is easy to think you are in the clear. You are not. Hazards extend far outside the cone. Damaging wind, surge, tornadoes, and especially rainfall regularly reach a hundred miles or more from the center. A storm whose center passes well to your west can still flood your neighborhood.
How to read it well
- Treat the cone as "where the center might go," not "who will be affected."
- Look for the separate wind, surge, and rainfall graphics for your actual risk.
- Watch the trend across advisories rather than fixating on one frame.
- Remember the cone does not widen for a bigger or stronger storm — size and intensity are shown elsewhere.
The cone is a useful summary of track uncertainty. It was never meant to be a map of who needs to prepare. For that, look up your location and follow the hazard-specific products.