Spaghetti Models, Explained
Those tangled colored lines on a hurricane map are 'spaghetti models' — each a different computer's track forecast. Here's how to read them (tight = confident, spread = uncertain), the mistake of fixating on one line, and why the official NHC forecast beats any single model.
You've seen them: a hurricane map covered in a tangle of colored lines, each going a slightly different way. These “spaghetti models” can inform — or badly mislead — depending on how you read them. What the lines actually are Each line is the track predicted by a different track-forecast tool — some are full physics ("dynamical") models, some are members of one model's ensemble, and some are simpler statistical or trajectory aids that are known to be weaker. They are not all the same kind of forecast. Forecasters run many models because each handles the atmosphere a little differently; compar…
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